Anxin securities 31 released an industry analysis report, said the maintenance of health care industry "leading big city -A" rating, as follows:
Pharmaceutical stocks relative to the CSI 300 premium rate dropped further, the valuation advantage obvious. The 08 years since the beginning of November, pharmaceutical stocks after the first strong corrosion, relative to the CSI 300 premium rate level dropped from 2.10 to 1.53. Pharmaceutical stocks are a typical non cyclical industry. In normal market environment, the change of ROE determines the change of relative PE. As profits rise, the relative PE of the non cyclical industry will decline; relative PE will rise in the non cyclical sector as earnings fall. If the market is experiencing a rapid upward or downward trend due to dramatic changes in money or liquidity, changes in the cost of capital (COE) will replace ROE as a major factor affecting the relative PE. When the rising COE decline, market trends, relative PE non cyclical industries often decline, such as 1999-2000, 2006-2007 and PE; the relative non cyclical industry usually rises, such as 1998, 2004. So since the beginning of the November pharmaceutical stocks relative premium rate levels continued to decline, but also can be explained by. Pharmaceutical stocks valuation level is currently at historic lows, valuation advantages obvious.
The entire pharmaceutical economy is running healthy, 20% years of revenue and profit growth is expected to more than 09. 09 years, 1-5 months, China's pharmaceutical industry's total revenue and profits were 322 billion yuan, 30 billion 900 million yuan, an increase of 18.07%, 16.83%, the growth rate fell by 11.36 and 28.29 percentage points. The main reason for the slowdown is 08 years of rapid growth in the industry, forming a higher base, as well as slow down the growth of the pharmaceutical raw materials industry. With the two or three quarter of raw material medicine industry, especially vitamin E and other segments of the industry export growth accelerated, the annual income and total profit growth rate of more than 20% is more determined. ROE is expected to hit a record high in 09 years. 09 years a quarterly, the listed company's ROE level reached 3.37%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points. Two or three quarter export recovery, raw material medicine industry, especially vitamin E industry earnings rebound, Anxin securities is expected to ROE level of single quarter chain will be further improved, 09 years ROE level will hit a record high.
Strengthen supervision and encourage development, pay equal attention to the healthy development of the industry. 08-09, the entire industry is a period of intensive policy introduction, strengthening supervision and encouraging development is the main theme. Shun securities that from the near to the distant there are three policy should be the focus of concern: "basic drug list", "drug technology transfer registration regulations", "Drug Administration Law" revision of the overall framework of. Among them, the "drug technology transfer registration management regulations" the introduction of new regulations for China's pharmaceutical market technology will bring about a revolution in the pharmaceutical industry, the technical elements will be the basic realization of internal free flow, which will greatly accelerate our pace of industrialization of medical technology, promote China's technological innovation and improve the quality of pharmaceutical drugs for the industry, is a real good, especially R & D resources and with marketing advantage two companies will be the first to benefit.
To maintain the industry "leading city -A" investment rating, gradually layout, waiting for the opportunity. Essence Securities believes that the current valuation of pharmaceutical stocks obvious advantages, the three quarter can gradually layout, the fourth quarter of the industry should be better performance. Shun securities still recommend investors continue to hold the core competitiveness prominent, high growth is relatively clear, the market must be given a premium valuation company: KELONG, Dong'e Hengrui medicine, biological glue. In addition, the investment style is still the focus of configuration is to underestimate the value of the margin of safety, but also has a certain price stimulus companies (such as product prices, performance expectations, asset injection, the concept of venture capital, equity incentive): first, raw materials, product profitability rebounded with monopolistic advantage: Zhejiang pharmaceutical company, and a new; second, the prescription drug specialist has research or (and) marketing company: Livzon Group, double Heron pharmaceutical, Winbond pharmaceutical, Huadong medicine, Yi Bai pharmaceutical, Tasly, Jinling pharmaceutical; with brand and marketing advantages, third OTC and the field of health care products company: Jiangzhong pharmaceutical, pharmaceutical; fourth, benefit from a major new drug plan, state assets into the expected: the modern pharmaceutical company. Fifth, to benefit from medical market expansion, the higher market share of generic drugs: Harbin Pharmaceutical shares, Double-Crane Pharmaceutical company.
